Surprise surprise

[Douglas]

I surrender!!!

But it won't be a Lenthall's escapee. If a 1 metre barra escaped Lenthall's the water level would drop 6 inches.

No I'm not guessing. I do have some hard data about what happened with the Awoonga Great Escape. It doesn't fit with your "probably not" comment. It only relates to barra 850mm or more.

In the first escape (Feb 2011), 164 escapees bigger than 850mm were tagged in the Boyne below the dam wall.

36 of them were 1000mm or better with the largest 1170mm. Big fat ones.

Of those tagged, 12 made it as far south as the Mary to be recaptured. That's 12 of those tagged or 7.3% with 4 reported recaptures from 1000mm to 1150mm.

Time taken to recapture varied from 27 days (2 of them) to 1000 days. Some got south in a hurry and some took their time.

So, if 7.3% of tagged ones got through, its pretty safe to say that 7.3 % of the untagged ones that went over the wall got though as well.

7.3% of 13,500 (after deaths) makes about 1000 Awoonga escapees got through to populate Kolan, Burnett, Elliott, Burrum, Sandy Straits and Mary. I reckon that some went even further south to Brisbane etc though no tag recaptures were reported. One tag was reported recaptured 315 km north 788 days later

That was only 1 overflow event. There were 3 overflows.

THAT'S what my opinion is based on.

You're right in that my knowledge of Mary River fishing is limited. I've done some fishing there but only for king on a handline from an old roadbridge between Mboro and Hervey bay ( the old Saltwater Creek bridge is it?)

But you don't have to have any of the local knowledge to know that about 1000+ barra from Awoonga went down that way. You local guys do the re-capturing and reporting and that's where local knowledge is indeed needed.

You fellas are not going to convince me and I'm not going to convince you.

So I'm happy with a truce.

[Peter4]

There were approx. 15000 escapees from Awoonga in a couple of overflows starting in 2011 (source Gladstone Area Water Board who stock Awoonga).

This number does my head in. There is no possible way that the GAWB has any idea of the number of barra that exited Awoonga. At one stage during the 2011 floods the outflow from the dam was 4m above the spillway (more than 8m above the spillway in 2013!). In 2013 it was estimated that the total volume of Awoonga was replaced twice by the floodwaters...

Based on the amount of fish I have seen, heard of being caught or reported since 2011, I conservatively believe in excess of 75% of the barra population have left Awoonga since 2011. Many locals will back this up. That would equate to hundreds of thousands of barra, perhaps over one million, that left in 2011 and in subsequent flood events. The GAWB number is surely just to reassure the travelling angler that Awoonga is still a great fishery - it's pretty good now but nowhere near where it was pre 2011...

Recent restocking will eventually see some improvements (many rat barra are being caught now) but big barra a few and far between at Awoonga these days. It will be interesting to see the results of this weekend's barra tournament...

[ActiveAngler]

There were approx. 15000 escapees from Awoonga in a couple of overflows starting in 2011 (source Gladstone Area Water Board who stock Awoonga).

This number does my head in. There is no possible way that the GAWB has any idea of the number of barra that exited Awoonga. At one stage during the 2011 floods the outflow from the dam was 4m above the spillway (more than 8m above the spillway in 2013!). In 2013 it was estimated that the total volume of Awoonga was replaced twice by the floodwaters...

Based on the amount of fish I have seen, heard of being caught or reported since 2011, I conservatively believe in excess of 75% of the barra population have left Awoonga since 2011. Many locals will back this up. That would equate to hundreds of thousands of barra, perhaps over one million, that left in 2011 and in subsequent flood events. The GAWB number is surely just to reassure the travelling angler that Awoonga is still a great fishery - it's pretty good now but nowhere near where it was pre 2011...

Recent restocking will eventually see some improvements (many rat barra are being caught now) but big barra a few and far between at Awoonga these days. It will be interesting to see the results of this weekend's barra tournament...

Maybe they should hold it at Lenthalls Pete.

[Douglas]

There were 15000 over the wall in the first event in 2011.

Pete, YOU are simply guessing now as are the locals who would back it up.

GAWB attempted to get an estimate of how many went over by counting as many as possible in sample time slots. Not perfect but at least workable. They needed to have some idea on how many to restock.

Hundreds of thousands (maybe even a million) wont change the fact that a s..tload of escapees went your way.

The exercise sample conducted with the tagged fish (164 of them) in 2011 revealed that 7.3% went Hervey Bay way. That's fact. Not guessing. Not estimating.

That equated to about 1,000 of the total that went over.

By your guess/estimate of "hundreds of thousands" then 7.3% of say 500,00, then 37,500 barra went towards Hervey Bay. If you estimate 1 million went over the wall, then 75,000 barra went your way.

How does that fit in with the claim that none would make there with all the obstacles, netting etc so Al's catch must be local or from Lenthalls. Don't forget that Monduran (even closer to Hervey Bay) also overflowed and many escaped.

So where should the balance of probability lie with the origin?

If 1/2 million or even 1 million escaped, it'd be reflected in a massive increase in commercial netting take of barramundi in the Hervey Bay area. After all, they catch more than recreational guys. So what did happen to the commercial barramundi take from Feb 2011? We know what happened in Gladstone with the 92.3% that didn't go south.

People get a worm's eye view on life which is calibrated locally if there's nothing to calibrate it against. Then perspective is lost.

You guys are proud of the barra fishery in the Hervey Bay/ Mary area. And you should be but don't get it out of perspective to the stage that you reject outside influences. The end result is a false sense of security and eventual disappointment.

[Awoonga]

So how many Barramundi left the building in 2011 ? 99.267 percent. And due to the size of the fingerlings that they are releasing it will be many years before its returns to some sort of its former glory. Remember GAWB purpose in life is to store water.... sell water...... The rest is but a hindrance

[Peter4]

Nah mate, only 15,000 went over cause that's what GAWB said...though I'm not sure how they counted the ones underwater that they couldn't see. Perhaps they're psychic!

[Douglas]

99.267% my foot!

Why don't you ring the GAWB hatchery and talk to them? They'll be happy to tell you how they arrived at those escapee figures. They're quite approachable and do a lot more than what you guys seem to think.

[BR65]

Sorry Douglas, it's hard to argue exactly how many went over, but when the established and well known Barra guide shuts up shop and moves to the salt, you know a lot were lost.
I personally think it was a lot more than the GAWB numbers quoted, based purely on the turkey shoot that happened downstream after each event

[Wilson]

Have a read or re-read of harro's book " Barra" . To me what harro says is the honest truth and got me targeting barras.

[Douglas]

The debate wasn't about how many went over the wall but what effect it had on the Hervey stocks and the claim about the unlikely effect of the Awoonga Great Escapes on the area.Attachment 34253

I spoke to the GAWB several times and they kept giving me 2 figures. 15,000 over and 1500 killed. (That was as late as May last year)

They gave Steve Booth and Steve Morgan from Fishing monthly figures of 25,000 with 1500 killed. http://fishingmonthly.com.au/Article...ruth-of-it-all

Overnight, I've got a bit more hard data (not opinion or guessing) now that suggests it might have been even more than that but still nothing like the claims on here and other places. I'll put that data up later for you all to have a look.

Meanwhile, here's some more data (once again not guessing but courtesy of Qld Fisheries logbooks) which shows the effect on commercial catches in the Bundaberg/Hervey Bay areas.

Note the large jump in commercial catch during 2011. Bundy is a bit of a sad case in that the minute there's an increase in numbers, the netting cleans them out quickly. Not the same as Hervey Bay where the estuary is a bit more "barra friendly".